Electoral College 2024 Predictions. So here is how our model translates polls and the other inputs it uses into probabilities in the electoral college and the popular vote in every state — plus some nightmare scenarios like a repeat of the 2000 florida recount. An interactive electoral map derived from 538's probabilistic model for the 2024 presidential election.

Finish the 2024 map and explore trump and harris’ paths to 270. Racetothewh is tracking the latest polling for the 2024 presidential election, and now includes polling for both kamala harris against donald trump.